Bull's Sports Betting Journal

I busted the Island Casino Sportsbook 20% reload on Saturday (finally).  I shouldn't be complaing, I guess, but I had high expectations of busting it very soon after I deposited when I went 4-for-4 on the first day.  Unfortunately, I started winning some of it back, and "churning isn't earning" as I say.  It's done now, though, and I pocketed about $385 of the $500 reload money.  I took a poor line on the Tigers-Royals game just to make it very likely I would bust that last bet.

Shifted some cash around on Sunday and then put $1200 into The Greek first thing this morning.  They are running a 21% to $250 first deposit bonus with 4X deposit only terms.  The deal with them is that you deposit, then you have to call or e-mail for the bonus to be applied.  I deposited and then called, but was on hold for 15 minutes listening to some Indian woman tell me every 20 seconds that my call was important and to stay on the line.  That was annoying - their MLB lines for today were already posted, and there were some promising opportunities.  It was 0530 this morning, so I will give them some slack.  I sent them an e-mail asking for the bonus, and if they credit it before I get home from work, all will be forgiven.  If not, I'll start to rant.

There is still some math modeling to be done in perfecting my chasing methods.  Right now I will take up to a 6 point difference in lines on MLB for a chase.  (More if it's the last bet that can bust me and I can get a big underdog on my busting book.) Right now I will take all the loss on the book that gets me busted out - typically Pinnacle.  Say I have -106 at Pinnacle and +100 at XXXSports.  I'll put $500 at XXXSports to win $500.  I'll put $500 on Pinnacle to win $472, taking a $28 loss if I bust it over to Pinnacle, but no loss if I am just meeting rollover at XXXSports.

I think this is a good method for balancing the earn rate.  If I bust fast, I bust a bit less.  If I don't bust, but instead meet rollover, I earn a bit more.  The problem I am having is when I have a 5X or higher rollover requirement.  My chase at Island (7X) highlighted this.  I busted $,2000 the first day and lost about $75 of the $500 bonus.  I still had $1,000 to bust out of Island.  Then I won a few at Island.  I found myself needing to "re-bust" about $1,000 that I had already  taken a small loss on.  If I take another small loss on it, I am still OK, but I would not even be half done with the rollover, and I could end up needing to bust that money a third or even fourth time before I was done.  I could see that the small losses could start to add up.  Fortunately, this didn't happen, but the problem presented itself and I would like to figure out the BEST way to proceed under those circumstances.  I haven't yet - which is why I say I need more math modeling.

More to think about.  Suggestions are welcome!