Sports Betting Articles
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Why Most Bettors Fail
Most sports bettors prefer to bet against the spread, which, in theory should give them about a 50% chance of picking a winner on any given straight bet. Juice gives the sportsbook an advantage. A healthy advantage, but not insurmountable - and certainly vulnerable to a substantial number of bettors going on a lucky streak and pocketing some big wins. Read More...
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Spread - a.k.a. "point spread" or "line". Probably the most common type of bet, a spread bet is one in which one of the teams must win by a certain margin for a bet on them to be a winner. This is done to ensure there is action on both teams. It is rare that any sporting contest is an evenly matched event. One team is the favorite and the other the underdog. Read More...
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There is a special category of Prop Bet that you should know about, and those are the prop bets that can be analyzed using the Poisson Distribution. (Poisson was a French statistician and the concept is named for him.) Simply put, Poisson looks at the probability of the number of times an event will occur. Read More...
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The Kelly Criterion is a math formula that tells you what fraction of your bankroll to wager on a given bet to attain the highest growth expectation for your bankroll. It was developed in 1956 by physicist and Bell Labs research scientist John L. Kelly. Read More...
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If you're going to handicap sports in order to beat the book on spread bets, your realistic long term goal would be to pick 55% winners. If you could do that, you should retire from whatever else you might do, and focus on sports betting full time, because you would eventually become very wealthy. Read More...
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